Bitcoin appears poised for a major breakout, with technicals, on-chain data, and institutional flows aligning to support further upside. Bollinger Bands are tightening—similar to the setup before BTC’s 75% rally to $74,000 earlier this year. Over $1B poured into crypto funds last week, pushing AUM to a record $188B. Combined with looser monetary policy and U.S. regulatory progress, a bullish case for Bitcoin is gaining traction this quarter.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Technical Analysis
After reaching an ATH around 123,750–125,000 as projected by the team, BTC has dropped by nearly 7,500 points. On the daily chart, BTC has formed a bearish candle with strong selling volume, suggesting a potential continuation of the correction toward the support zone at 116,373–115,500. BTC may also consolidate within the previous range, with the key level at 115,500–120,250.
If BTC breaks below the 115,500 key support level, it could continue to decline toward the next support at 111,725–110,330. Conversely, if BTC breaks above the 120,250 key resistance level, it may rally toward resistance levels at 121,525–123,750–125,000, with the possibility of setting a new ATH near 128,550.
BTC Price Prediction
Over the next 3 to 6 months, Bitcoin is projected to climb toward the $130,000–$190,000 in November, as technical indicators and institutional flows increasingly align in favor of a sustained uptrend.
On the 3-day chart, Bollinger Bands have tightened significantly, mirroring the setup ahead of BTC’s 75% rally in early 2024, according to analyst Crypto Rover. Even John Bollinger, the creator of the indicator, recently stated on X:
“Bitcoin looks like it is getting ready for a breakout move.” If history repeats itself, a breakout above the current resistance zone could pave the way for BTC to test or surpass $190,000.
Looking ahead, Standard Chartered, Bitwise, and Bernstein forecast that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by strong spot ETF inflows, rising institutional adoption, and improving regulatory clarity in the U.S. In the short term, CoinCodex and Coinpedia project a 21–31% increase in Q3, targeting a range of $130,000–$140,000, supported by continued ETF demand and BTC’s leadership in the current bull cycle.
With technical momentum, loose monetary policy, and robust institutional interest converging, the market appears to be laying the groundwork for a significant Bitcoin rally in the second half of 2025.
Bollinger Bands Signal Potential Bitcoin Breakout
According to the Bollinger Bands, Bitcoin is nearing a potential volatility expansion. This popular trading tool is used to assess price momentum and volatility range. On the 3-day chart, YouTuber Crypto Rover noted that the bands are now “tighter than they’ve been at any time since February 2024”—a period that preceded a 75% surge to the previous all-time high of $74,000. With BTC currently trading around $118,726, Rover believes a move toward the $190,000 level is not out of the question. As he put it, “A big pump is coming!”
Source: Crypto Rovers
Market analysts are echoing this view. Cantonese Cat emphasized that “Bollinger Bands are tighter than any time in over a year—something big is brewing.” Meanwhile, Frank Fetter highlighted that BTC’s volatility range has compressed to just 9.4%, near its lowest level in the past 12 months, signaling that the market is tightly coiled.
Even John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands, has shifted from cautious to bullish. While he previously warned that repeated rejections around $110,000 might signal a local top, his latest post on X tells a different story: “Bitcoin looks like it is getting ready for a breakout move.”
Bitcoin looks to be setting up for an upside breakout. $BTCUSD More as the week gets going.
— John Bollinger (@bbands) July 6, 2025
Global Liquidity Is Rising—And Bitcoin Is Following the Money
Beyond technicals, macroeconomic and liquidity conditions are also setting the stage. Instead of simply mirroring gold or tech stocks like the Nasdaq, Bitcoin’s recent price action shows a growing correlation with global M2 money supply—which includes cash, checking, and savings deposits. As central banks around the world begin to cut interest rates and reintroduce looser monetary policies, M2 is expanding—and Bitcoin tends to follow suit with a 2–3 month lag.
In the short term, this suggests liquidity flows are the key driver of BTC price action—not its narrative as “digital gold” or a tech stock proxy. Over the long run, investor confidence and real value remain central. But with global M2 still on the rise, liquidity could act as a powerful catalyst, potentially propelling Bitcoin to new highs in the months ahead.
Crypto Funds Record $1 Billion Weekly Inflows, Setting New AUM High
Digital asset investment funds saw another week of strong inflows, pulling in a net $1.04 billion—their 12th consecutive week of positive momentum, according to the latest data from leading asset managers. This surge pushed total assets under management (AUM) to a new all-time high of $188 billion, fueled by rising crypto prices and sustained institutional interest.
Bitcoin ETPs accounted for $790 million of the inflows, slightly below the three-week average, while Ethereum outperformed on a relative basis—posting weekly inflows of 1.6% of its AUM, compared to Bitcoin’s 0.8%. This suggests a subtle but growing shift in investor attention toward ETH.
Learn more: What is Bitcoin ETF and How Does it Work?
Meanwhile, several public companies have started incorporating Solana and other altcoins into their treasury strategies. This move allows them to gain exposure to digital assets ahead of potential ETF approvals for altcoins that support staking—signaling growing confidence in the broader market beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Key Crypto Legislation Gains Momentum in U.S. Congress
This week marks a pivotal moment for the U.S. crypto industry, as House leaders move to fast-track critical legislation that could define the legal framework for digital assets in the coming years. In a joint announcement, Rep. French Hill (Chair of the Financial Services Committee) and Rep. Glenn “GT” Thompson (Chair of the Agriculture Committee) confirmed that three landmark bills are being prioritized:
- The CLARITY Act, which outlines market structure regulations for digital assets
- The GENIUS Act, focused on stablecoin oversight
- The State Anti-CBDC Oversight Act, aimed at curbing centralized digital currencies at the state level
The GENIUS Act has already passed both chambers and awaits President Trump’s signature. Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act has cleared the House and now heads to the Senate. Former White House crypto advisor David Sacks previously projected that the CLARITY Act would move into final voting by the end of September—making this quarter potentially historic for U.S. crypto regulation.
Together, these developments—from tightening technical indicators and institutional flows to regulatory clarity—paint a compelling picture: crypto markets may be entering the final phase of this bull cycle, with the potential to unlock new all-time highs in the months ahead.
